Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.628125 0.725904 0.830728 0.951100 1.085131 1.229412 1.396087
2025-02-16 0.440402 0.563073 0.705051 0.880072 1.088490 1.327165 1.619495
2025-02-23 0.303808 0.431700 0.591791 0.803473 1.072256 1.398235 1.819131
2025-03-02 0.204615 0.325849 0.490687 0.724764 1.041382 1.447043 1.997255
2025-03-09 0.148274 0.264611 0.436083 0.696502 1.069670 1.571671 2.282271
2025-03-16 0.105818 0.213099 0.384985 0.664155 1.087210 1.683167 2.560808
2025-03-23 0.082579 0.186271 0.365589 0.674658 1.166129 1.885847 2.980958
2025-03-30 0.057964 0.149417 0.322024 0.639762 1.171948 1.983857 3.261850
2025-04-06 0.042292 0.124525 0.293430 0.624079 1.204685 2.123363 3.613030
2025-04-13 0.030147 0.102446 0.264664 0.602582 1.224200 2.243016 3.942400
2025-04-20 0.023294 0.090238 0.252664 0.609549 1.292156 2.443839 4.409451
2025-04-27 0.017339 0.077568 0.236387 0.605103 1.338676 2.612547 4.836297
2025-05-04 0.012665 0.066464 0.221552 0.602790 1.392215 2.803125 5.321550
2025-05-11 0.009253 0.057375 0.209107 0.603467 1.451799 3.009533 5.848087
2025-05-18 0.006159 0.046841 0.189303 0.583692 1.468657 3.142229 6.260511
2025-05-25 0.003728 0.036395 0.165575 0.549288 1.450765 3.210130 6.566287
2025-06-01 0.002545 0.030973 0.155370 0.546418 1.498895 3.403649 7.103113
2025-06-08 0.001620 0.025558 0.142777 0.534409 1.525243 3.557451 7.578115
2025-06-15 0.001220 0.023492 0.141821 0.554514 1.626444 3.863324 8.344750
2025-06-22 0.000697 0.018728 0.127597 0.532948 1.627966 3.972058 8.755190
2025-06-29 0.000419 0.015633 0.118781 0.525509 1.661928 4.147797 9.298940
2025-07-06 0.000228 0.012672 0.108656 0.511271 1.676993 4.285095 9.776276
2025-07-13 0.000147 0.011286 0.105871 0.520782 1.752940 4.553757 10.516646